Nailing Down the Future

Blog Post 5-5/6/2020

Nailing Down the Future 💅🏼

Many of us are aware of the Lipstick Effect as coined by Leonard Lauder, Chairman of Estée Lauder, at the beginning of 2001 when he observed that lipstick sales tend to be inversely correlated to economic health. And during the 2008 recession, nail polish was the “lipstick” of this financial crisis earning double digit growth in sales from 2008-2011. Euromonitor reports, “In 2008/2009, nail polish was the fastest growing category in the global beauty and personal care industry, and it was austerity-hit Western markets driving growth as cash-strapped women rediscovered nail polish as an affordable fashion accessory and a morale booster.” Taking this a step further, not only did nail polish increase in sales during the recession but designer nail polish like Chanel and Dior also thrived. It is a small luxury that offers a designer name at a relatively affordable price—not compared to other nail polishes of course, but relative to the price of designer goods. 

Nails are probably my favorite beauty category 💅🏼 (seriously, that was really hard to decide). All my colleagues and friends know that my nails are my obsession. I’ve been thinking a lot lately about what the immediate future of the nail category might look like and wanted to share a few thoughts.   

New Wave of Self-Taught Nail Artists

Just like many MUAs are self-taught or learned their skills from watching beauty influencers on YouTube, the nail category will see growth in self-taught nail artists. There are plenty of nail influencers and YouTubers who create how-to content that show viewers how to do their own nails. Nail content tends to cover topics like manicure basics, nail art, gel nails, dipping powder, working with acrylic, sculpting nails, and much more. Similar to makeup there are varying levels of skill and practice required to create certain looks. This wave of DIY nail artists will expand beyond traditional lacquer and move into more professional services like gel, polygel and acrylic. These mediums require a more advanced skillset but the barrier to entry is pretty accessible. Amazon, for example has gel nail kits for as low as $40. Dipwell is another brand who makes salon-grade dip powder kits for at-home use. 

Press Ons

Press ons have BOOMED over the past few years. And I’m not talking about short, square french tips we wore in the early 2000s. Press on nails have finally been given a much needed update. Because nail salons are closed due to COVID, no one is able to keep up with regular nail maintenance. Press ons offer a way to keep up the luxury of well-maintained nails. I’ve seen quite a few instagram-native brands emerge like Très She and Static Nails that have wildly trendy designs. I’ve also seen nail artists, like Cardi B’s go-to Jenny Bui aka @nailson7th, sell press on sets that they’ve created and designed as a means to generate income while social distancing. Looking even further into the future, I think press on nail adhesive (glue or sticky tape) will evolve and possibly involve magnetic solutions.

Nail Strips & Stickers

Nail stickers and strips also offer another DIY alternative to having on-trend nails without access to the nail salon. I read an article on Allure about how healthcare workers are turning to nail stickers because they are typically not allowed to wear artificial or gel nails due to their likelihood to lift and harbor bacteria. Like press ons, nail strips have come a long way in their innovation. New brands are standing out in the category by promising the look of gel (Dashing Diva), offering nail artist curated designs (Madeline Pool x ManiMe) and small stickers to complement your polish (Olive & June).     

Hand Care

Hand care is about to be BIG. With the amount of times we’re washing our hands throughout the day this is hand care’s time to shine. Glossier was able to release their highly anticipated Hand Cream amidst COVID. Timing couldn’t be better. Beauty brands who may not currently exist in this space will make the jump. Hand care will become as essential to a beauty brand’s portfolio as eyes, lips and face. After all, we’re using our hands to apply makeup; whether that’s holding a brush, sponge or using our fingers to blend. Hands are our ultimate tools and it’s important that they are cared for and treated properly, just as we would any other beauty tool. Expect to see hand sanitizers and hand lotion products from all beauty brands. Brands that already dabble in skin and personal care will expand beyond sanitizers and lotions into the larger hygiene category with new antibacterial and immune-supporting ingredients.